With uranium prices up 40% in the past year, many are wondering if the bull run is nearing its end. As an investor that is heavily focused on this space, I’m here to tell you this rally is far from over. In fact, the fundamentals suggest the nuclear fuel bull still has ample room to run. Let me explain why.

A severe supply deficit has rapidly emerged in uranium over the last two years. The Fukushima-related overhang has finally been eliminated through rising demand even as mine output stagnated. There simply aren’t enough pounds to go around anymore. Just securing the 500,000 pounds needed for a single reactor reload is practically impossible in today’s spot market. Temporary shortages are inevitable.

The days of easy supply are over. With scarce uncommitted inventory remaining, we are entering a new paradigm of fierce competition among buyers vying for limited pounds. Procurement officers at utilities are soon to experience first-hand the whiplash of an underfed market as they struggle to find material. The inevitable result will be rapidly escalating prices.

On the critical contracting front, the long-awaited flood of demand is finally starting to materialize. After years of lackluster activity insufficient to spur new supply, contracting volumes are poised for major increases this year and even more next year. Driven by efforts to diversify away from Russian supply after the invasion of Ukraine, contracting could reach 150 million pounds this year – a 25% jump from recent years.

This is the pivotal recovery in long-term utility commitments needed to incentivize developers to build new mines. With lead times of 7-10 years, the industry must contract substantially more to avoid massive shortfalls when existing reserves are exhausted. The tide is just beginning to come in on uranium contracting after years in the doldrums.

With demand surging and mines operating at full tilt, prices have no where to go but up in the face of this rapidly emerging supply crisis. The past is prologue – the last time a major supply deficit hit in the mid-2000s, spot prices soared tenfold.

I expect the spot price could hit $100 per pound within one year, almost certainly overshooting that mark during a market frenzy before settling lower again when the inevitable supply response kicks in. However, mine restarts and new projects will almost certainly lag, setting the stage for more volatility.

While short-term pullbacks are expected (and healthy) following the blistering rise so far this year, the inescapable fundamentals will reignite the uptrend in short order. The ocean of demand is rising, while supply levels are stuck at low tide. It’s a recipe for a prolonged bull run as the price must ration limited pounds.

For investors, the coming years will separate the savvy from the skeptical. The uranium bull market still has legs.